NAIROBI, Kenya — James Gichina started out 15 years ago as a driver shuttling travelers from the airport, worked his way up to safari guide, and with the help of some bank loans, bought two minivans of his own to ferry vacationers around.
His clients were, as he is, members of Africa’s growing middle class — bankers from Nigeria, tech entrepreneurs from South Africa, and fellow Kenyans who could finally afford trips to enjoy their own country’s beaches and wildlife preserves.
But when the coronavirus pandemic cratered the tourist industry and the economy, Mr. Gichina removed the seats from his minibus and started using it to hawk eggs and vegetables. With what he now earns, he said, he can barely afford to pay rent, buy food or send his 9-year-old son to school.
“We have been working hard to build better lives,” Mr. Gichina, 35, said of his colleagues in the tourist sector. Now, he said, “We have nothing.”
As the coronavirus surges in many countries in Africa, it is threatening to push as many as 58 million people in the region into extreme poverty, experts at the World Bank say. But beyond the devastating consequences for the continent’s most vulnerable people, the pandemic is also whittling away at one of Africa’s signature achievements: the growth of its middle class.
For the last decade, Africa’s middle class has been pivotal to the educational, political and economic development across the continent. New business owners and entrepreneurs have created jobs that, in turn, gave others a leg up as well.
Educated, tech-savvy families and young people with money to spare have fed the demand for consumer goods, called for democratic reforms, expanded the talent pool at all levels of society, and pushed for high-quality schools and health care.
About 170 million out of Africa’s 1.3 billion people are now classified as middle class. But about eight million of them could be thrust into poverty because of the coronavirus and its economic fallout, according to World Data Lab, a research organization.
It’s a setback that may be felt for years to come.
“The tragedy is that because Africa is not growing fast, this collapse of the middle class could take several years to recover,” said Homi Kharas, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and the co-founder of the World Data Lab.
Africa’s middle class tripled over the past 30 years, by some estimates, spurred by job opportunities in sectors like technology, tourism and manufacturing. But now that the region is facing its first recession in 25 years, millions of educated people living in urban centers could fall victim to the extreme income inequality that has defined Africa for decades.
The rising middle class has been “critical for the future prospects of African economies as they stimulate long-term growth, social progress, an inclusive and prosperous society and effective and accountable governance,” said Landry Signé, author of “Unlocking Africa’s Business Potential.” The coronavirus “will drastically delay wages and hold back the dreams of Africa’s middle class,” he said.
Governments across Africa responded differently to the coronavirus, but Kenya was among those that closed borders, imposed curfews and restricted movement between counties. In Nairobi, the capital, malls were once touted as a symbol of a rising middle class. Now their owners are furloughing employees, shuttering stores and desperately trying to survive the crisis.
When Kenya first announced lockdown restrictions in March, there was almost no foot traffic at the Junction mall, where Nairobi’s middle class had once gravitated to dine and shop in more than 100 stores.
Eastleigh, a bustling area with dozens of malls, hotels, lodges and banks, was also put under a total lockdown in early May after a jump in reported coronavirus cases.
Maryan Bashir, who owns three stores in Eastleigh that sell mattresses and curtains, said traders like her were already worried about whether they could still get supplies from China as the pandemic began to affect imports. But the lockdown left them reeling from lack of customers.
It also cut employment. Out of 12 of her co-workers, only three lived within the locked-down area and could report to work.
The authorities lifted the curfew from Eastleigh in early June, but Ms. Bashir said it will be a long time before shop owners like her are able to make the same profits they made before the pandemic.
“The landlords are still asking for rent,” she said, “but if we are not earning anything, how do we even pay?”
The economic fallout of the Covid-19 outbreak is also being felt among the middle class in Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy. Hit by low oil revenues in the pandemic, the West African nation faces increasing unemployment rates and a recession that could last until 2021, according to the International Monetary Fund.
As demand for goods and services crashed, small businesses and entrepreneurs dependent on cash flow found themselves increasingly in dire straits.
Biola Kazeem established his sports marketing company, Elev8 Sports Entertainment, six years ago, marrying his passion for sports with his college degree in communication. But as sports leagues worldwide canceled or postponed events, Mr. Kazeem said he lost 70 percent of his business and had to put half of his 11-member staff on leave without pay.
Despite facing financial challenges in the early years, “nothing absolutely prepared us for this,” Mr. Kazeem said in a phone interview from Lagos.
In Zimbabwe, which has been in economic free fall for years, the pandemic and the ensuing restrictions are threatening the solvency of those who have built a bridge into the middle class.
For years, Madeline Chiveso’s restaurant in downtown Harare, Zimbabwe, served professionals such as bankers, journalists and engineers flocking to work. But as infections rose and the restrictions tightened, there were no customers to serve. She was forced to close the restaurant.
She used to make $350 a day, and now makes nothing. She is using her savings to pay bills, she said, jeopardizing her dream of one day owning her own home.
“The future looks surely uncertain because nobody knows how this would end,” said Ms. Chiveso, who is 46 and a single mother of two daughters, both in college.
Mr. Kharas, of the World Data Lab, defined the middle class in Africa as households that spend anywhere between $11 and $110 per capita per day.
Frequently Asked Questions and Advice
Updated June 24, 2020
What’s the best material for a mask?
Scientists around the country have tried to identify everyday materials that do a good job of filtering microscopic particles. In recent tests, HEPA furnace filters scored high, as did vacuum cleaner bags, fabric similar to flannel pajamas and those of 600-count pillowcases. Other materials tested included layered coffee filters and scarves and bandannas. These scored lower, but still captured a small percentage of particles.
Is it harder to exercise while wearing a mask?
A commentary published this month on the website of the British Journal of Sports Medicine points out that covering your face during exercise “comes with issues of potential breathing restriction and discomfort” and requires “balancing benefits versus possible adverse events.” Masks do alter exercise, says Cedric X. Bryant, the president and chief science officer of the American Council on Exercise, a nonprofit organization that funds exercise research and certifies fitness professionals. “In my personal experience,” he says, “heart rates are higher at the same relative intensity when you wear a mask.” Some people also could experience lightheadedness during familiar workouts while masked, says Len Kravitz, a professor of exercise science at the University of New Mexico.
I’ve heard about a treatment called dexamethasone. Does it work?
The steroid, dexamethasone, is the first treatment shown to reduce mortality in severely ill patients, according to scientists in Britain. The drug appears to reduce inflammation caused by the immune system, protecting the tissues. In the study, dexamethasone reduced deaths of patients on ventilators by one-third, and deaths of patients on oxygen by one-fifth.
What is pandemic paid leave?
The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave.
Does asymptomatic transmission of Covid-19 happen?
So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement.
What’s the risk of catching coronavirus from a surface?
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
How does blood type influence coronavirus?
A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.
How many people have lost their jobs due to coronavirus in the U.S.?
The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.
What are the symptoms of coronavirus?
Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.
How can I protect myself while flying?
If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)
What should I do if I feel sick?
If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.
What distinguishes the middle class from the poor, said Razia Khan, the chief economist for Africa and the Middle East at Standard Chartered bank, is the ability to earn a steady income. But because of the pandemic, many more people across Africa are at risk of being “knocked back into poverty” because of lack of jobs, unemployment benefits or any social safety net, she said.
The pandemic is also posing a threat to nascent industries supported by governments in Africa in recent years to boost the number of middle-income earners.
Rwanda, which announced aspirations to become a middle-income nation by 2035, supported the local textile and fashion industries to limit imports of used clothing from the United States, and boost manufacturing.
Matthew Rugamba, 30, created House of Tayo in 2011, building it into one of the leading brands in Rwanda’s burgeoning fashion scene. Mr. Rugamba gained enough notice for his designs to be worn in Hollywood, at the premier of the movie “Black Panther.”
But as Rwanda enforced one of the toughest lockdowns in Africa, Mr. Rugamba’s store shut its doors, only to open several weeks later to almost no customers. Even though he’s pivoted to making masks and introduced a delivery service, business has not been the same.
“We were at a point where people value the work that we do,” Mr. Rugamba said. But with the pandemic, he said, “you go through periods where you are worried that this is something that I have invested nine years of my life in, and is it going to be there tomorrow?”
More governments are offering financial support and tax breaks to businesses, and urging proprietors to hold onto their employees even if they reduce production or services, said Mr. Kharas, of the World Data Lab.
Economists like Ms. Khan said that emerging markets in Africa, no strangers to economic shocks, have proven resilient in the past, and could come out stronger when the pandemic is over.
But that hope is likely a long way off for Mr. Gichina, the safari guide now selling eggs to survive. He works for the tour company Bonfire Adventures, which was founded in 2008 by an entrepreneur named Simon Kabu, specifically to serve Africa’s growing middle class.
Once a milk delivery guy and conductor on the matatu minibuses used for transit in Kenya, Mr. Kabu grew up in Kenya’s central highlands to a mother who was a farmer and a father who was a retired civil servant.
But by starting a business that served the ever-growing travel needs of the middle class, he grew Bonfire Adventures into an award-winning tours company with 10 offices, 200 permanent staff and 300 drivers and guides.
The coronavirus has gutted all that, pushing Mr. Kabu, 45, to lay off his employees en masse. The only staff members currently working, he said, are accountants who are processing refunds for customers unable to travel.
Mr. Gichina hopes business will resume soon — especially as he dreads losing out on the peak wildebeest migration starting in late June, which usually draws tourists from across the world.
“The banks are pressuring us a lot,” he said of the urgency to settle his loans. “They are saying you have to pay,” but, he asked, “where should we get the money?”
Lynsey Chutel contributed reporting from Johannesburg, South Africa and Jeffrey Moyo from Harare, Zimbabwe.